This work develops a stochastic optimization model for the creation of a bidding strategy for a generator in an energy call option auction similar to Brazil’s, i.e., where the bidder can offer both the premium and the strike price. The objective of the model is to maximize the bidder’s competitiveness while ensuring that the project’s target rate of return is achieved with a given probability, for example 95%. The problem’s complexity is compounded by uncertainties in fuel supply and the need to switch between fuels. The generators face the conundrum of bidding a single strike price to cover the expenses generated by using multiple types of fuels. We address the problem of finding bidding strategies which, taking into account uncertainty in fuel supply and risk constraints, set the combination of strike price and option premium that ensure a desired risk-adjusted return for greenfield dual-fuel thermal plants.

A histórica falta de planejamento, aliada ao intenso fluxo migratório, induziu a ocupação desordenada de diversas cidades, entre elas o Rio. Sucessivos governos "compensavam"o déficit habitacional e os deficientes serviços, com uma inaceitável tolerância à desordem. Favelas nas encostas, sob viadutos e nas margens de rios passaram a fazer parte da paisagem e todos se acostumaram, mesmo com evidentes riscos.

A forte redução de custos dos equipamentos de geração solar fotovoltaica e a elevada tarifa de energia elétrica no Brasil são os ingredientes para que a energia solar fotovoltaica se torne economicamente competitiva quando comprada à nossa "conta de luz"? A resposta é o tema antecipado no título.

A tecnologia de Energia Solar Fotovoltaica (ESF) está em franca expansão no mundo. Programas de incentivo à energia renovável em diversos países, como Alemanha, Espanha, EUA e China, oferecem “feed-in tariffs”- tarifas diferenciadas (mais elevadas) para projetos de ESF e outras fontes renováveis, como eólica, biomassa, etc. Contratos de até 20 anos são assinados com as empresas distribuidoras, que compulsoriamente compram esta energia, repassam os custos aos consumidores. Como resultado, a capacidade instalada da ESF cresceu fortemente nos últimos anos, reduzindo custos de produção, aumentando a concorrência e trazendo inovações tecnológicas. A crise financeira de 2008 aumentou o inventário de placas no mundo, um fator conjuntural que também contribuiu para a redução de preços das placas fotovoltaicas.
Na direção contrária está o alto custo da “conta de luz” no Brasil. Suas causas são bem conhecidas. Kelman, por exemplo, mostra a evolução da tarifa da Light desde sua privatização em 1996 até 2008, apontando tributos (+562%) e encargos setoriais (+1178%) como grandes responsáveis pelo aumento da tarifa no período (+256%). Portanto, boa parte do aumento da conta de luz no país se origina fora do setor elétrico, mais precisamente no Legislativo. Tributos e encargos já respondem por mais de 40% da tarifa de energia. A elevada tarifa de energia do Brasil em termos internacionais traz à tona a questão: a ESF já é uma alternativa viável para consumidores de energia elétrica?

The integration of natural gas and electricity sectors has increased sharply in the last decade as a consequence of combined cycle natural gas thermal power plants. In some countries such as Brazil, gas-fired generation has been a major factor in the overall growth of natural gas consumption. When related to the operations planning, in some hydrothermal systems, a national system operator dispatches these gas-fired plants (along with other thermal sources such as coal, oil, and nuclear) in conjunction with the country’s hydroelectric plants by using a production-costing model based on stochastic programming. The algorithm determines the optimal hydro-to-thermal energy production ratio on the basis of the expected benefit of reducing thermal plant generation over a large number of hydrological scenarios, along a planning horizon of some years. This means that the optimal scheduling decision today depends on the assumptions about future load growth and future entrance of new generation capacity. Stochastic dyn mic programming models are extensively used. However, the hydrothermal scheduling models usually do not take into account the possibility of future fuel supply constraints, either in production or in transportation. The assumption of fuel supply adequacy is felt to be reasonable for the more mature markets such as coal and oil. However, because of the fast growth of the natural gas market, it is possible that demand outpaces supply or transportation investments. Indications that gas-related constraints could be relevant were observed in New England, in the US, and in Brazil in 2004, where several megawatt of combined-cycle generation could not be dispatched when needed due to constraints in pipeline capacity. The objective of this work is to present a methodology for representing the natural gas supply, demand, and transportation network in the stochastic hydrothermal power scheduling model. Application of the integrated electricity–gas scheduling model is illustrated in case studies, with realistic configurations of the 90GW Brazilian system.

Alguns fatores conjunturais, dentre os quais se destacam o envelhecimento de equipamentos e o aumento do rigor nos requisitos de qualidade do serviço, vêm causado uma tendência de aumento dos custos operacionais de distribuidoras de energia elétrica – em particular, dos custos relativos aos processos de inspeção, manutenção, renovação e substituição de equipamentos da rede elétrica, além de disponibilização de peças reservas. A aplicação de técnicas de gestão de ativos aparece como uma alternativa interessante para o planejamento e a coordenação dos processos supracitados, visando à determinação de políticas robustas de manutenção de equipamentos e disponibilização de reservas, que respondam às pressões de aumento de custos.
O emprego de técnicas de gestão de ativos permite basear as decisões acerca dos processos de manutenção de equipamentos e disponibilização de peças reservas em informações quantitativas e que capturam a tanto evolução da condição física da rede de distribuição como a interface com a regulação relacionada à qualidade do serviço. Este embasamento quantitativo promove investimentos prudentes e eficiência operacional, estando assim relacionado à modicidade tarifária.
O objetivo deste artigo é discutir questões conceituais relativas à aplicação de técnicas de gestão de ativos a processos de manutenção de equipamentos e disponibilização de peças reservas.

Ensuring generation adequacy is a critical problem for emerging countries in Latin America and Asia due to the combination of high load growth rates, constrained access to private equity and low generation security margins. Although market schemes designed solely around spot prices could in principle provide the correct economic signals for the entrance of new generation capacity [1], their actual track record is somewhat mixed. For example, a 2005 World Bank report [2] surveyed the experiences of nineteen countries which implemented market reforms and faced supply difficulties afterwards. These difficulties, backed up by theoretical arguments [3], contributed to a growing consensus that more effective measures to ensure supply adequacy are required. As a consequence, a number of countries early adopted some forms of capacity markets or payments. For instances, Chile, the United Kingdom, Argentina, Spain, Colombia, Peru, Italy, South Korea and US markets such as PJM, NEISO and NYISO have established regulated capacity payments at some stage [4].

The implementation of auctions of long-term electricity contracts is arising as an alternative to ensure generation investment and therefore achieve a reliable electricity supply. The aim is to reconcile generation adequacy with efficient energy purchase, correct risk allocation among investors and consumers, and the politico-economic environment of the country. In this paper, a generic proposal for a long-term electricity contracts approach is made, including practical design concepts for implementation. This proposal is empirically derived from the auctions implemented in Brazil and Chile during the last 6 years. The study is focused on practices and lessons which are especially useful for regulators and policy makers that want to facilitate the financing of new desirable power plants in risky environments and also efficiently allocate supply contracts among investors at competitive prices. Although this mechanism is generally seen as a significant improvement in market regulation, there are questions and concerns on auction performance that require careful design and which are identified in this paper. In addition, the experiences and proposal described can serve to derive further mechanisms in order to promote the entrance of particular generation technologies, e.g. renewables, in the developed world and therefore achieve a clean electricity supply.

The storage capacity (or “regularization capacity”) of a hydro system refers essentially to its capability of transferring excess inflow energy from wet to dry seasons. The Brazilian hydro power system is formed by hundreds of reservoirs capable of multi-year storage capacity. Historically, this has been measured in the Brazilian Power System in terms of the duration of the critical period, which in turn is obtained from optimization models that calculate the firm energy (FE) of hydroelectric systems. These models, however, only represent the hydroelectric system explicitly and do not take into account the synergy between hydro and thermal plants. This synergy can be an important aspect in defining the storage capacity of the hydrothermal system. The objective of this article is: (i) to define a methodology for measuring the regularization capacity of a generation system; (ii) to analyze by this measure the current regularization capacity of the Brazilian system; and (iii) to analyze the impact of the development of large-scale run-of-the-river hydro plants that are in the pipeline to start commissioning in the next years.

Brazil has a large potential for wind: it is estimated that nearly 140,000 MW of wind energy generating capacity could be built in the country. In December 2009 a specific auction to contract wind power was carried out. The motivation of this auction was to take advantage of the 2008-2009 world financial crisis that has lowered equipment cost as well as to foster competition among the interested investors, thus starting the development of this technology in the country in a larger scale. The product offered – a 20 year energy contract – has particular characteristics that try to accommodate wind variability and mechanisms to penalize productions above/below a given annual energy threshold. The objective of this work is to discuss the wind power auction in Brazil. We describe the auction motivation, product, organization, procedure, results and present our critical analysis. The information presented in this work may be useful for other countries willing to adopt the same mechanism.