Where is the Gas, Part II: the (O)mission

OPINION

The theme of this issue is an ANP regulatory requirement, that may have contributed to the lack of natural gas offer to thermal plants candidates at the last auction: the proof of sufficient reserves to support for 20 years the constant maximum generation of thermal plants. It is shown that the same security of gas supply for the electricity sector can be achieved with much lower requirements: reserves for the next five years (rolling horizon) and an amount sufficient for a 66% capacity factor (99% gas supply reliability). In PSR™s view, these new regulations can ease the gas supply for the next A-3 auc- tion scheduled for March.

REGULATIONS

In this issue, we analyze the following issues: (i) Application for suspension of contracts made by Ber-tin and 27 distribution utilities; (ii) Commitment Letter signed between Petrobras and ANEEL; (iii) Proposed rule for review of physical guarantees of totally inflexible thermoelectric plants; (iv) Rule for review of physical guarantees of thermal plants that change their fuel; and (v) Update and consolida-tion of regulations for energy contracting in the free market .

ENVIRONMENTAL

This month, the Environmental section examines the background and the low transparency in the creation of Environmental Conservation Areas and their relationship with the country™s new hydroe- lectric projects.

SUPPLY

This issue presents: (i) structural balance of energy; (ii) structural balance of peak (maximum hourly demand, in MW); (iii) delays in construction of new supply; and (iv) analysis of inflows in coming months.