Issue 95 • November 2014

How will tomorrow be: Forecasts for PLD, GSF, ESS ETC. for 2015


In this section we describe how PSR calculates the probability distributions of indicators relevant to agents, such as prices in the spot market (PLD) and the differences between hydroelectric production and physical guarantee (GSF). To express our thanks to our readers, we include in this issue an access to our files with results of these probabilistic simulations, as well as an interactive ficontrol panelfl for their visualization.


In this section we analyze the following topics: (1) an almost 30% tariff increase in 2015; (2) balance between tariff flag revenue and distributions utilities' expenses due to de-contracting (failure in A-1 auction) and to GSF (hydroelectric concessions quotas); (3) increase of 20 R$/MWh in the Northeast tariff due to disproportionate allocation of ESS in that region; and (4) effective cost, for consumers, of thermal plants contracted in the recent A-1 Auction.


In this section we analyze the case of Simplício hydro plant, where the entrepreneur, despite having strictly met all environmental compensations, cannot operate in full. An additional concern is that the case of this plant has parallels with that of Belo Monte.


This section features: (i) structural balance of energy; (ii) delays in construction of new supply for the horizon 2014-2018; and (iii) delay meter - monitoring the historical record of delays.

Electronically published since 2006, the PSR Energy Report is a monthly newsletter developed by PSR, whose main objective is to present a comprehensive and current analysis of regulatory, legal issues, water resources and environment and supply of the electricity sector in Brazil.