Authors
Ana Beatriz Werlang (PSR), Illana Geller (UFRJ), Gabriel Cunha (PSR), André Salles (UFRJ)

Corresponding author
Ana Beatriz Werlang (anabeatriz@psr-inc.com)

Publisher
Brazilian Symposium of Operational Research (SBPO)

Abstract
The causal relationship between energy demand and GDP has been the subject of intense research over the past three decades. The present work seeks to analyze the energy consumption evolution of different countries of the world and the relation of the same with the level of economic development, represented by GDP. For this purpose, an annual database containing GDP and electricity consumption of 143 countries in the period between 1990 and 2014 was prepared. Thus, linear regression models and autoregressive vector models were used to explain the electricity consumption of countries and groups of countries. The results indicated that there is no standard elasticity behavior for most countries with similar levels of economic development. Despite this, a good performance was observed in the simple linear regression for aggregate data in groups of countries, which indicates the possibility of performing a reliable aggregate planning.

Electricity consumption; GDP; Linear Regression; Autorregressive Vector Models

Document only available in Portuguese. For further information, please directly contact the author or email PSR (psr@psr-inc.com).

Authors
João Pedro Bastos (PSR), Gabriel Cunha (PSR), Luiz Augusto Barroso (EPE), Thereza Aquino (UFRJ).

Corresponding author
João Pedro Bastos (joao@psr-inc.com)

Publisher
Energy

Abstract
In the sectoral reform processes that several countries underwent in the 1990s and 2000s, it was common to introduce a capacity mechanism to ensure adequacy in the systems' expansion. The definition of a “reliability product” that is separate from the energy product, whose main role is to identify the contribution of generators during critical moments of low probability, was instrumental to attract investments in new generation in the newly-liberalized electricity markets. This study presents a methodology to simultaneously determine not only the value of the reliability product as perceived by the demand side but also the quantities of this product (the firm energy certificates) to be allocated to each generator in a hydrothermal power system. The methodology was put into practice through a detailed case study of the Brazilian electric system using the SDDP software. We calculated the amount of firm energy certificates and their economic value for six technologically representative generators – thermoelectric plants with different variable costs (peak and baseload), hydropower plants with and without seasonal reservoirs, wind and solar – evidencing the role played by the characteristics of each technology in the allocation of the firm energy certificates among generators.

Electricity markets; Firm energy certificate; Reliability mechanism

Official electronic reference: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2018.05.067

Document only available in English. For further information, please directly contact the author or email PSR (psr@psr-inc.com).