Authors
Rafael Kelman (PSR), David L. Harrison

Abstract
The share of Variable Renewable Electricity (VRE) is expected to increase in the Brazilian power grid in the years due to favorable conditions which include economic performance and resource availability. Wind and solar photovoltaic projects will likely lead new capacity investments. While existing hydropower can support this growth, in the long run, difficulties for the development of new hydro plants will make it harder for the power system to integrate VRE. The standard option is to build new open cycle gas turbine plants, which provide capacity to supply peak demand and reserves at the expense of increasing the emission of greenhouse gases. An alternative is to develop a flexible and resource: Pump Hydro Storage (PHS). We advocate the following process to examine this alternative: (1) the use of specialized geoprocessing algorithms that operate on a digital terrain model to screen for most promising sites for the construction of PHS; (2) the use of an engineering module to design PHS candidate projects in the selected sites and calculate their costs; (3) the use of an Integrated Resource Planning optimization model a study to evaluate the set of candidates that are selected by an. In a site-specific level, hybrid PHS + solar PV projects can be optimized and then integrated as a “system of systems” to improve grid stability, reliability, robustness and resiliency.

Authors
R. C. Perez* (PSR); S. Binato (PSR); L. Okamura (PSR); D. Bayma (PSR); I. Carvalho (PSR); W. S. Morais (PSR)

Abstract
The purpose of this Paper is to present (i) a methodology for determining the optimal generation and transmission expansion plan for each country and (ii) a proposal for evaluating the benefits achieved with regional interconnections. The results of the application of these methodologies proposed in this Paper are illustrated with a case study considering interconnections that involve the SINEA and the Southern Cone systems that is part of a recent study of South American interconnection, sponsored by the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB). The study includes nine countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru and Uruguay) with an area similar to the European Union or the United States.

Document only available in Spanish. For further information, please directly contact the author or email PSR (psr@psr-inc.com).

Authors
W. S. Morais* (PSR); R. C. Perez (PSR); A. Soares(PSR)

Abstract
With the increase of penetration of variable renewable sources in electrical systems, the necessity to plan the expansion considering the inherent characteristics of those sources are becoming more relevant. This paper proposes the use of an optimization model that aims to minimize the cost associated with the expansion with a probabilistic approach and time granularity and is able to capture both the uncertainty and the intermittency of renewable sources such as wind and solar photovoltaic (SFV). This is done at the optimization process by considering a reserve requirement that contemplates the effects of intermittency and preserves the reliability of the system. Finally, a case study of the expansion of a real electrical system, the Mexican electrical system, and the results obtained with the application of the proposed methodology is presented.

Document only available in Spanish. For further information, please directly contact the author or email PSR (psr@psr-inc.com).

Authors
Mateus A. Cavaliere (PSR), Sergio Granville (PSR), Gerson C. Oliveira (PSR), Mario V.F. Pereira (PSR)

Abstract
This work presents a methodology for forward electricity contract price projection based on market equilibrium and social welfare optimization. In the methodology supply and demand for forward contracts are produced in such a way that each agent (generator/load/trader) optimizes a risk adjusted expected value of its revenue/cost. When uncertainties are represented by a discrete number of scenarios, a key result in the paper is that contract price corresponds to the dual variable of the equilibrium constraints in the linear programming problem associated to the optimization of total agents´ welfare. Besides computing an equilibrium contract price for a given year, the methodology can also be used to compute the evolution of the probability distribution associated to a contract price with a future delivery period; this an import issue in quantifying forward contract risks. Examples of the methodology application are presented and discussed.

Document only available in English. For further information, please directly contact the author or email PSR (psr@psr-inc.com).