Authors
R. C. Perez* (PSR); S. Binato (PSR); L. Okamura (PSR); D. Bayma (PSR); I. Carvalho (PSR); W. S. Morais (PSR)

Abstract
The purpose of this Paper is to present (i) a methodology for determining the optimal generation and transmission expansion plan for each country and (ii) a proposal for evaluating the benefits achieved with regional interconnections. The results of the application of these methodologies proposed in this Paper are illustrated with a case study considering interconnections that involve the SINEA and the Southern Cone systems that is part of a recent study of South American interconnection, sponsored by the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB). The study includes nine countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru and Uruguay) with an area similar to the European Union or the United States.

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Authors
W. S. Morais* (PSR); R. C. Perez (PSR); A. Soares(PSR)

Abstract
With the increase of penetration of variable renewable sources in electrical systems, the necessity to plan the expansion considering the inherent characteristics of those sources are becoming more relevant. This paper proposes the use of an optimization model that aims to minimize the cost associated with the expansion with a probabilistic approach and time granularity and is able to capture both the uncertainty and the intermittency of renewable sources such as wind and solar photovoltaic (SFV). This is done at the optimization process by considering a reserve requirement that contemplates the effects of intermittency and preserves the reliability of the system. Finally, a case study of the expansion of a real electrical system, the Mexican electrical system, and the results obtained with the application of the proposed methodology is presented.

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Document only available in Spanish. For further information, please directly contact the author or email PSR (psr@psr-inc.com).

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Authors
Mateus A. Cavaliere (PSR), Sergio Granville (PSR), Gerson C. Oliveira (PSR), Mario V.F. Pereira (PSR)

Abstract
This work presents a methodology for forward electricity contract price projection based on market equilibrium and social welfare optimization. In the methodology supply and demand for forward contracts are produced in such a way that each agent (generator/load/trader) optimizes a risk adjusted expected value of its revenue/cost. When uncertainties are represented by a discrete number of scenarios, a key result in the paper is that contract price corresponds to the dual variable of the equilibrium constraints in the linear programming problem associated to the optimization of total agents´ welfare. Besides computing an equilibrium contract price for a given year, the methodology can also be used to compute the evolution of the probability distribution associated to a contract price with a future delivery period; this an import issue in quantifying forward contract risks. Examples of the methodology application are presented and discussed.

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Document only available in English. For further information, please directly contact the author or email PSR (psr@psr-inc.com).

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