Application of a Generation Expansion Model Considering Dynamic Probabilistic Reserve Constraints in the Mexican Electrical Power System

Weslly Morais, UFRJ – BSc

In scenarios with high penetration of variable renewable energy sources in electrical systems, the importance in planning the system expansion considering the characteristics inherent to these sources, such as the high intermittency and stochasticity of their dispatch, becomes more relevant. Thus, this work proposes the use of an optimization model that aims to minimize the cost associated with the expansion (sum of investment cost and expected value of operating costs) with a probabilistic approach and hourly granularity, capable of capturing both uncertainty and the intermittence at generation of renewable technologies such as wind and solar photovoltaic, taking into account also the modelling of a reserve requirement that preserves the reliability of the system operation.

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