An efficient hybrid heuristic for the transmission expansion planning under uncertainty
We address the stochastic transmission expansion planning (STEP) problem under uncertainty in renewable generation capacity and demand. STEP’s objective is to minimize total transmission investment and generation costs. To tackle the computational challenges posed by large-scale systems, we propose a heuristic strategy that combines the progressive hedging (PH) algorithm for scenario-wise decomposition with an integrated approach for solving the resulting subproblems. The latter combines a destroy-and-repair operator, a beam search procedure, and a mixed-integer programming solver. The proposed framework is evaluated on large-scale systems from the literature with up to 10,000 nodes, adapted to stochastic scenarios using parameters from the California test system (CATS). Compared with a non-trivial baseline algorithm that includes the same integrated approach, the proposed PH-based method consistently improved solution quality for the six systems considered (including CATS), achieving an average cost improvement of 5.28% within a 2-hour time limit.
Integrated investment and operational planning for sugarcane-based biofuels and bioelectricity under market uncertainty
Sugarcane biomass is a strategic resource for the energy transition, particularly in Brazil, where it underpins electricity and ethanol production. Investment planning is challenged by diverse production pathways, price volatility, and feedstock variability. This work develops a two-stage stochastic optimization model integrating investment and operational decisions for sugarcane facilities. The model aims to support robust planning for diversified biomass plants, aiding the sector’s decarbonization. The first stage defines capacity expansion under economies of scale through a power-law cost function. The second stage defines operational decisions under price and feedstock uncertainty, modeled via scenarios and Conditional Value-at-Risk. From an investor’s perspective, the objective is to minimize risk-adjusted net costs. In addition to its methodological contributions, this work also provides an open-source implementation of the proposed capacity expansion planning framework, referred to as OptBio. A Brazilian case study shows risk-neutral strategies favor sugar/ethanol but are vulnerable, whereas risk-averse strategies promote diversification. Sensitivity analyses indicate biomethane and hydrogen may become viable with favorable prices, while biochar boost productivity and profitability.
