Ignoring the effects of climate change on the planning of the expansion and operation of the Brazilian electricity system can make operating costs higher and increase the risk of shortages. This is one of the main conclusions of the study “Impacts of Climate Change on Electricity Generation Planning,” launched by the Energy Research Company (EPE). The work is part of the Energy Systems of the Future Project, an initiative of the Brazil-Germany Cooperation for Sustainable Development, executed by GIZ, in partnership with the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME).

Conducted in consortium by PSR with Tempo OK, the study used high-resolution climate projections and computational models for medium- and long-term energy operation planning (SDDP) and energy expansion planning (OptGen) to perform simulations of the operation and expansion of the National Interconnected System (SIN) and to assess the effects of climate change on the Brazilian electricity sector. The results show that incorporating different climate scenarios into planning can reduce operating costs by up to 13% and increase security of supply, compared to the reference scenario.

To launch the study, the institutions joined forces and organized an event at the Banco do Brasil Cultural Center (CCBB) in Rio. Representing PSR, Rafael Kelman, Julio Alberto, Mateus Cavaliere, and Jairo Terra participated as speakers, presenting the main results and technical contributions of the study. The meeting also included the participation of the Secretary of Energy Transition and Planning of the Ministry of Mines and Energy, Gustavo Ataíde, and the president of EPE, Thiago Prado.

The research also had the technical support of the National Institute for Space Research (INPE) and the National Water and Basic Sanitation Agency (ANA).

“Our goal was to develop methodologies that allow us to quantitatively assess how different climate scenarios can affect the Brazilian electricity system. Incorporating these variables into planning is fundamental to ensuring security of supply and long-term economic efficiency,” highlighted Rafael Kelman, executive director of PSR.

In the context of severe climate change, with increasingly frequent extreme events, the study serves as a key contribution in planning the sector’s adaptation to the new climate normal. The study highlights the need to incorporate the effects of climate change into planning studies for the expansion and operation of the system. The research, therefore, integrates PSR’s effort to develop analytical solutions that help governments and energy sector institutions increase the resilience of their systems.

Check out the executive summary of the study at this link.
The complete study can be found at this link.